September new home sales came in at a dismal rate of 533,000, down 13.2% Y-o-Y. Worse, sales for June, July and August were all revised down. Sales are now up just 3.5% YTD. Sales in CY2018 may well be less than in CY2017. But, housing sales need to consistently fall about 20% Y-o-Y before a recession follows and residential construction/GDP is two-thirds of where it usually is when housing swoons.
Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
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