Fewer Firms

Fewer Firms   In 2017, 1.2 million houses were started. While that's double the number of starts in 2009, the worst year on record, it's still 400,000 starts below what's needed based on population, job growth, and teardowns. This means we're currently underbuilt by 4,500,000 units, with the gap widening, albeit more slowly now than [...]

2018-01-10T10:30:04+00:00 January 10th, 2018|Recent News, Uncategorized|0 Comments

Mortgage Matters

Mortgage Matters  With the median house value in the US at $205,000, capping the mortgage interest deduction on loan principal eligible for the deduction to $500,000 from the current $1,000,000 would impact just 5% of home owners. Moreover, just 6.7% of the benefits of the MID go to the middle 20% of households, compared to [...]

2017-11-17T10:31:44+00:00 November 17th, 2017|Uncategorized|0 Comments


TREASURY WITHDRAWS PROPOSED REGULATIONS UNDER SECTION 2704 On October 4, 2017 the US Treasury Department released a report on upcoming actions intended to reduce the burden of tax regulations. Among other things, Treasury plans to withdraw proposed regulations under Section 2704 that would have hurt family owned and operated businesses by limiting valuation discounts. Marketability [...]

2017-10-10T12:33:14+00:00 October 10th, 2017|Uncategorized|0 Comments

Sales Slide

Sales Slide Because single-family construction activity is rising much too slowly while multifamily activity shrinks, housing inventory has declined Y-o-Y for 27 straight months, prices keep rising faster than wages, and affordability is at its lowest level since early 2009. As a result, housing sales have been flat for the past 12 months at an [...]

2017-09-28T11:26:14+00:00 September 28th, 2017|Uncategorized|0 Comments

Horrible Hurricanes

Horrible Hurricanes The destruction of private wealth and public infrastructure caused by hurricanes Harvey and Irma is roughly $200 billion. The impact on GDP growth will critically depend on how fast refineries in Houston and tourism in Florida recover, along with how much insurance money and government disaster assistance arrives. 17Q3 GDP will be three-quarters [...]

2017-09-28T11:22:06+00:00 September 28th, 2017|Uncategorized|0 Comments

Inadequate Inflation

Inadequate Inflation Headline inflation as measured by the CPI is 1.94%, and, after falling for some months, is again rising, partly on the back of rising rent inflation. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, and is a better measure of underlying inflation, is 1.68% and still falling. Why? Cheaper cell phone plans, a [...]

2017-09-28T11:20:23+00:00 September 28th, 2017|Uncategorized|0 Comments

Acceptable Abodes

Yesterday’s March housing data were good. While starts were down 6.8% compared to February’s outstanding weather-induced number, starts were up 9.2% compared to March 2016. Moreover, starts are up 8.1% year-to-date and were up about 8% each month this year compared to last. Single-family starts are up almost 6% YTD; multifamily starts, a surprisingly strong [...]

2017-04-20T10:42:17+00:00 April 20th, 2017|Uncategorized|0 Comments